4.3 Discussion -Primary Elections and Delegate Hunting
- Due Dec 6, 2020 by 11:59pm
- Points 10
- Submitting a discussion post
- Available until Dec 10, 2020 at 11:59pm
Primary Elections and Delegate Hunting
Key Terms:
- Open Primary or Closed Primary
- Winner Take All v. Proportionate Delegates
- Front loading
- Invisible Primary
- Super Tuesday
The Invisible Primary
An invisible primary is said to begin when a candidate formally announces their plans to run for office. The invisible primary comes to a close when the actual primary season begins.
The invisible primary is a testing-ground for candidates. It’s an opportunity to find out how much support they can gather before the real primary is held. In fact, the invisible primary can often make or break candidates – candidates who don’t get enough shows of support during the invisible primary often end up bowing out of the race, sometimes before the primary season even begins.
Front-Loading
Front-loading refers to multiple US states moving their primary elections as close as possible to the beginning, or "front," of the election cycle. Iowa and New Hampshire have historically been influential because they've been the first primaries in a presidential election, and other states want a piece of the action. Front-loading allows momentum candidates to emerge and leaves behind the others, meaning the party gets to focus on a smaller set of candidates more quickly.
Delegate Distribution
2016 Primary Election Movement Links to an external site.
Each Political Party distributes delegates among the states based on population. Candidates then run in the primaries and win delegates in an attempt to gain a majority prior to the Convention.
Democratic Primary 2020
Democrats use a proportional distribution system where a candidate wins delegates equal to their proportion of the primary vote in the state.
Delegates Needed to Win the 2020 Democratic Nomination Links to an external site.
First Ballot
A candidate will need 1,991 of the 3,979 pledged delegates to win the Democratic nomination on the first ballot. Per the Democratic National Committee, a candidate needs a majority of those eligible to vote on the ballot. Most importantly for the calculation, the candidate needs "a whole unit of delegate above half."
Republican Primary 2020
Republican use either a "winner take all" or a proportional distribution system to distribute delegates. In a winner take all, the candidate who wins the states, gets ALL of the delegates. In proportional distribution, a candidate wins delegates equal to their proportion of the primary vote in the state.
Delegates Needed to Win the 2020 Republican Nomination Links to an external site.
A majority of the estimated 2,550 (1,276+) are needed to win the Republican nomination on the first ballot.
Analysis:
Front-loading allows those states who go early to define the early leaders in the race.
Political Fundraising- Donors want to contribute to winners. If a candidate can't enter or win early, they won't get the funding needed to win the election.
Winner Take All- Republicans-If a candidate does not perform well in these states, they lose everything.
Discussion Question:
Is the primary system helping or hurting the selection of the ebst candidate for each party? Select on or more of the criteria above and make an argument?
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